Business and Biodiversity


Scenar 2020

Scenario study on agriculture and the rural world

The study Scenar 2020 is about understanding change in agriculture and rural areas in the European Union for the period until 2020. It identified the impact of the main driving forces on agriculture and rural regions, such as population, economic change, agricultural markets and environmental conditions as well as the CAP. It drew far-reaching and differentiated conclusions on the challenges for European agriculture and rural areas. Scenar 2020 provided a thorough basis for later discussions on the future of agriculture and rural regions in the EU.

The study identified the impact of the CAP on agriculture and rural regions in three scenarios and demonstrated the differentiated impact of these changes, for example on the marginalization of rural regions, changes in land use and agricultural production, the structural adjustment of agriculture within the regional context as well as the corresponding environmental implications. Moreover, the study identified major opportunities and challenges for agriculture and rural areas. These consist of the impact of new products such as renewable energy, new opportunities on world markets as well as structural change and changing environmental conditions in parts of the EU. The evolving situation in the labour and land markets will play a major role in agricultural change and its regional dimension.


- ECNC-European Centre for Nature Conservation
- Landbouw-Economisch Instituut
- Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandforschung
- Leibniz Institut für Länderkunde
- Central European University
- European Landowners' Organization (ELO)

This twelve-month study was carried out by the European Centre for Nature Conservation, Landbouw-Economisch Instituut, the Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandforschung, Leibniz Institut für Länderkunde, the Central European University and the European Landowners' Organization. The study was reviewed in depth by six independent experts during two workshops. The study can be found at:

Below you can download an article published in Agra Europe, a publication in the field of business and finance offering news and analysis about the European agriculture industry: