Business and Biodiversity


Scenar 2

Update of analysis of prospects in the Scenar 2020 study

The first Scenar 2020 study, led by ECNC and finalized in December 2006, provided an important background for the reflections of future agricultural policies and a systematic review of the primary variables that rural and agricultural policies have to take into account (such as rural demographic patterns, the agricultural technology, the agricultural markets, as well as the natural and social constraints on land use that are likely to exist by 2020), and comprised identification of the future trends and driving forces that will form the framework for the European agricultural and rural economy on the horizon of 2020.

ECNC, together with the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI) in the Netherlands and the Center for Agricultural Landscape and Land Use Research (ZALF) in Germany, commenced work on the second phase of the Scenar project in October 2008.

The objective of the Scenar 2020-II study was to refine and improve the identification of major future trends and driving factors – and the perspectives and challenges resulting from them – provided by the initial Scenar 2020 study (December 2006) on the future of European agriculture and the rural world. In this respect the study was not aimed at evaluating the impact of potential policy changes, but on comparing how the agricultural sector might evolve under different pathways which, to a large, although not full extent, follow the assumptions of the first study.

Time frame
The project was completed in December 2009.


Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI; the Netherlands)
Center for Agricultural Landscape and Land Use Research (ZALF; Germany)


The project was funded by the European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development.

This follow-up work provided an additional analytical input into the debate on the future of the Common Agricultural Policy with the further development and refinement of the Scenar 2020 study. ECNC coordinated the project and edited the final report, which is available online at